Updating the CBO Baseline#

This document provides instructions for updating the CBO_baseline.csv file found in the Stage 1 folder.

Most of the projections can be found in the CBO’s 10-year Economic Projections. Those variables are listed under “Variables in the 10-Year CBO Projections.” Those that are not in that file are listed separately.

The year of the file/report the current numbers come from as well as the year of the file/report used before the most recent update are listed for each variable. These will needed to be updated with each update of CBO_baseline.csv.

All of the updates to CBO_baseline.csv and this documentation can be handled by running puf_stage1.py/updatecbo.py. If you would prefer to manually update everything, instructions can be found below, though we would advise against that endevor.

  1. Variables in 10-Year CBO Projections

  2. CGNS

  3. CPIM (CPI Medical Care)

The code in puf_stage1.py/updatecbo.py assumes that the format of the spreadsheets, websites, and BLS API accessed by the program remain unchanged. If the program throws an error or the results do not look correct, it is likely that this assumption is no longer true and you should update the code accordingly

If the updates include projections for years that were not there previously, puf_stage1/stage1.py, cps_stage1/stage1.py, puf_stage2/stage2.py, and cps_stage2/stage2.py will also need to be updated. Instructions for doing so are also included in this file.

If you would like to add a new variable to the baseline projections, you should also modify puf_stage1.py/updatecbo.py so that future updates are also automated.

About CBO_baseline.csv#

This file contains all of the data used in our initial growth factors calculations. Each row contains either a projected or actual value for the year associated with that column.

Variables in 10-Year CBO Projections#

As previously mentioned, most of the variables we used can be found in the CBO 10-Year Economics Projections. To manually update these variables download the latest file and copy/paste the specific variables.

Previous Document: February 2024

Current Document: June 2024

Variable

Name In CBO Document

GDP

GDP

TPY

Income, Personal

Wages

Wages and salaries

SCHC

Proprietors Income, Non Farm with IVA & CCAdj

SCHF

Proprietors Income, Farm with IVA & CCAdj

INTS

Interest Income, Personal

DIVS

Dividend Income, Personal

RENTS

Income, Rental, with CCAdj

BOOK

Profits, Corporate with IVA & CCAdj

CPIU

Consumer Pricing Index, All Urban Consumers (CPI-U)

Variables Not in 10-Year Projections#

CGNS#

Source: Revenue Projections, By Category (CBO)

Previous: June 2024

Current: June 2024

In the revenue projections file, the data is in the Capital Gains Realizations tab under the Capital Gains Realizations column.

RETS#

Source: IRS Publication 6187 Table 1B

Previous: Fall 2022 Report

Current: Fall 2023 Report

The projections in the publication typically end a few years before the 10-year projections do. We use the growth rate from the final year in the projections to extrapolate into the additional years that are needed.

SOCSEC#

Source: OASI Trust Fund Annual Trustees Report

Table VI.C4. Operations of the OASI Trust Fund, Table VI.C4, Column: Scheduled Benefits: Intermediate Level

Previous: 2023 Report

Current: 2023 Report

Projections are taken directly from the Scheduled Benefits: Intermediate Level column of this table.

CPIM (CPI Medical Care)#

Source: BLS Database

Series ID: CUSR0000SAM Access Date: November 04 2024

Manual Instructions:

  1. From the above link, click on “More Formatting Options”

  2. Under “Select view of the data,” select “Original Data Value”

  3. Click “Retrieve Data”

  4. Download the table at the bottom of the page

  5. Take the 12 month average for each year in the data

  6. Find the average difference between CPI-U from the CBO 10-Year projections

  7. Add this average difference to the CBO CPI-U projections

UCOMP#

Source: CBO Unemployment Compensation projections

Previous: February 2024

Current: June 2024

Note: Change the Total Benefits number from the table to be in terms of billions rather than millions of dollars

Adding a New Year to the Projections#

If the updates you are making also add an additional year to the extrapolation, you will need to make a few additional changes.

Stage 1 Updates#

In puf_stage1/stage1.py and cps_stage1/stage1.py, you need to increment the EYR variable at the top of the file to reflect the new end year.

Stage 2 Updates#

In puf_stage2/stage2.py and cps_stage2/stage2.py, you need to create a new column in the z and weights data frames, respectively, for the new year. This will call the solve_lp_for_year function in the exact same way as the previous years.

Stage 3 Updates#

In puf_stage3/stage3.py, update the end_year variable at the top of the file to reflect the new end year.